| IIDA Takeshi |  |
| Faculty of Law Department of Political Science | |
| Professor |
Last Updated :2025/04/30
Researcher Profile and Settings
researchmap
Research funding number
50468873Research Areas
- Humanities & social sciences / Politics / Political behavior, Political Methodology, American Politics
Research Experience
- Doshisha University, Faculty of Law, Professor, 2019/04 - Today
- Doshisha University, Faculty of Law, Associate Professor, 2013/04 - 2019/03
- Kobe University, Graduate School of Law, Project Lecturer, 2011/10 - 2013/03
- Waseda University, Graduate School of Asia Pacific Studies, Assistant Professor, 2010/04 - 2011/09
- Waseda University, Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, Assistant Professor, 2008/10 - 2010/03
- Waseda University, Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, Visiting Research Associate, 2007/10 - 2008/09
Education
- The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Government, Ph.D. Program, 2001/08 - 2007/12
- Doshisha University, Graduate School of American Studies, MA Program, 1999/04 - 2001/03
- Doshisha University, Faculty of Law, Department of Political Science, 1995/04 - 1999/03
Degree
- Ph.D. in Government, The University of Texas at Austin, Dec. 2007
- M.A. in American Studies, Doshisha University, Mar. 2001
- B.A. in Law, Doshisha University, Mar. 1999
Association Memberships
- 日本比較政治学会, Apr. 2014, 9999
- 公共選択学会, Apr. 2012, 9999
- 日本政治学会, Apr. 2008, 9999
- アメリカ学会, Apr. 2008, 9999
- 日本選挙学会, Apr. 2002, 9999
- American Political Science Association, Aug. 2001, 9999
Committee Memberships
- Board member, 2022/10 - Today, The Japanese Political Science Association, Society
- Board member, 2020/05 - Today, The Japanese Association of Electoral Studies, Society
- Board member, 2018/12 - Today, The Japan Public Choice Society, Society
- Councilor, 2018/06 - Today, The Japanese Association for American Studies, Society
Published Papers
- 大統領選挙におけるトランプ投票の分析
飯田 健
安全保障研究, 6(4) 1 - 32, Jan. 2025 - Does a patron state's hardline posture reassure the public in an allied state?
Masaki Hata; Takeshi Iida; Yasuhiro Izumikawa; Tongfi Kim
Conflict Management and Peace Science, Nov. 2024, Scientific journal - なぜ自民党は強いのか：政治に不満をもつのに与党に投票する有権者
飯田 健
荻上チキ編著『選挙との対話』, 17 - 40, Oct. 2024 - 緊迫する国際情勢下での安全保障争点と投票行動：2022年参院選における維新の躍進
飯田健
選挙研究, 39(2) 74 - 90, Mar. 2024 - 2016年における予測の失敗と2020年大統領選挙
飯田健
日本国際問題研究所令和2年度米国研究会研究報告書『国際秩序の動揺と米国のグローバル・リーダーシップの行方』, 17 - 18, Mar. 2021 - 投票行動：どうやって代理人を選ぶのか？
飯田健
坂本治也・ 石橋章市朗編『ポリティカル・サイエンス入門』法律文化社, 65 - 80, Sep. 2020 - なぜトランプは支持されたのか：2016年大統領選挙におけるリスク受容的有権者
飯田健
吉野孝・前嶋和弘編著『危機のアメリカ「選挙デモクラシー」：社会経済変化からトランプ現象へ』東信堂, 184 - 211, Apr. 2020 - 地図抽出による確率標本に対するインターネット調査：回答率の決定要因と調査モード間の比較
飯田健; 池田謙一; 西澤由隆; 松林哲也
政策と調査, 埼玉大学社会調査研究センター, 17(17) 13 - 20, Dec. 2019, Scientific journal - Citizens' Constitutional Knowledge and American Representative Democracy
Takeshi Iida
Japanese Journal of American Studies, 30 53 - 73, Jun. 2019, Scientific journal - トランプ支持者再考：通説と実証研究との乖離
飯田健
国際問題, 681 6 - 17, May 2019, Scientific journal - 政党の争点立場認知と投票後悔：2016年参院選における護憲派による改憲勢力への投票
飯田健
年報政治学, 2018(II) 60 - 81, Dec. 2018, Scientific journal - Media Coverage and the Association between Japanese Perceptions of South Korea and North Korea
Takeshi Iida
Japanese Political Science Review, 4 1 - 25, Oct. 2018, Scientific journal - 格差、治安、再分配支持：国家間のマルチレベル分析
飯田健
日本比較政治学会年報, 20 29 - 55, Jul. 2018, Scientific journal - Consumption Tax Increase and Government Trust: Assessing Citizen Responses to the 2014 Consumption Tax Increase in Japan
Jong Hee Park; Junghwan Lee; Takeshi Iida
Korean Political Science Review, 51(3) 27 - 52, May 2017, Scientific journal - 2016年アメリカ大統領選挙と日米同盟・TPP に対する世論の支持
飯田健
日本国際問題研究所平成28年度外務省外交・安全保障調査研究事業「国際秩序動揺期における米中の動勢と米中関係」研究報告書『米国の対外政策に影響を与える国内的諸要因』, 83 - 98, Mar. 2017, Research society - アメリカ政治学における数理モデルの衰退と実験の隆盛：因果効果の概念に着目して
飯田健
公共選択, 木鐸社, 67(67) 46 - 64, Feb. 2017, Scientific journal - 自民党大阪市会議員の大阪維新の会への鞍替えの分析：中選挙区制下の再選欲求と潜在的政策選好
飯田健
レヴァイアサン, 木鐸社, 59(59) 80 - 105, Nov. 2016, Scientific journal - Public Goods Provision Experiment with CASI survey
Kazumi Shimizu; Yuko Morimoto; Motoki Watabe; Takeshi Iida; Koichi Kuriyama
Masaru Kohno and Yoshitaka Nishizawa, eds. Electoral Survey Methodology: Insight from Japan on Using Computer Assisted Personal Interviews. New York, NY: Routledge, 109 - 123, Jun. 2016, In book - オバマ政権下における武力行使に対する世論の制約
飯田健
日本国際問題研究所平成27年度外務省外交・安全保障調査研究事業「国際秩序動揺期における米中の動勢と米中関係」研究報告書『米国の対外政策に影響を与える国内的諸要因』, 81 - 100, Mar. 2016, Research society - Surging Progressives in the Conservative Mood: The Conditional Effects of Income and Urbanism on Vote Choice in the 2014 Japanese Lower House Election
Takeshi Iida
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 1(1) 6 - 24, Mar. 2016, Scientific journal - 日韓比較を通じた選挙制度の政治的影響の検証：経路依存・代表性・政治意識
趙眞晩; 飯田健
康元澤・浅羽祐樹・高選圭編著『日韓政治制度比較』慶應義塾大学出版会, 111 - 151, Apr. 2015, In book - Dynastic Politicians: Theory and Evidence from Japan
Yasushi Asako; Takeshi Iida; Tetsuya Matsubayashi; Michiko Ueda
JAPANESE JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 16(1) 5 - 32, Mar. 2015, Scientific journal - 近代日本における政治学の二つの起源と編成
飯田健
井田太郎・藤巻和宏編著『近代学問の起源と編成』勉誠出版, 150 - 168, Nov. 2014, In book - 悪い経済状態にもかかわらずなぜオバマが勝ったのか：Waseda American Voter Survey 2012の分析
飯田健
吉野孝・前嶋和弘編著『オバマ後のアメリカ政治：2012年大統領選挙と分断された政治の行方』東信堂, 97 - 123, Mar. 2014, In book - The Consequences of Risk-taking Voting Behavior
IIDA Takeshi
Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies, Japanese Association of Electoral Studies, 29(2) 48 - 59, Dec. 2013, Scientific journal - 投票参加
飯田健
岩崎正洋編『選挙と民主主義』吉田書店, 235 - 249, Oct. 2013, In book - 社会的望ましさバイアス：CASI調査による軽減効果
飯田健
日野愛郎・田中愛治編『世論調査の新しい地平：CASI方式世論調査』勁草書房, 235 - 249, Jul. 2013 - 調査票の作成：組織としての意思決定のあり方に着目して
飯田健
日野愛郎・田中愛治編『世論調査の新しい地平：CASI方式世論調査』勁草書房, 43 - 54, Jul. 2013, In book - アジア市民の共同体：何が地域アイデンティティをつくるのか
飯田健; 勝間田弘
天児慧・平川幸子・堀内賢志・松岡俊二編著『アジア地域統合学 総説と資料』勁草書房, 133 - 153, Jul. 2013 - Under What Conditions Can Voters Make a Rational Choice?: Voter Preference and Choice in Old-Age Pension Reform in Japan
Tsuyoshi Adachi; Masahisa Endo; Takeshi Iida; Kohei Kamaga
公共選択, 58 106 - 126, Nov. 2012, Scientific journal - Why Economic Conservatives Tend to be Socially Intolerant?
IIDA Takeshi
Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies, Japanese Association of Electoral Studies, 28(1) 55 - 71, Jun. 2012, Scientific journal - 2010年中間選挙におけるティーパーティのインパクト：集計・個人レベルデータを用いた実証分析
飯田健
吉野孝・前嶋和弘編著『オバマ政権と過渡期のアメリカ社会：選挙、政党、制度、メディア、対外援助』東信堂, 3 - 29, Mar. 2012, In book - 計量分析を初めて学ぶあなたへ
飯田健
鴨川明子編著『アジアを学ぶ：海外調査研究の手法』勁草書房, 17 - 30, Nov. 2011, In book - Causal Inferences in Electoral Studies
IIDA Takeshi; MATSUBAYASHI Tetsuya
Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies, Japanese Association of Electoral Studies, 27(1) 101 - 119, Jun. 2011, Scientific journal - The Dynastic Politicians in Japan
IIDA Takeshi; UEDA Michiko; MATSUBAYASHI Tetsuya
Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies, Japanese Association of Electoral Studies, 26(2) 139 - 153, Dec. 2010, Scientific journal - オバマ支持連合の政策選好：政権運営へのインプリケーション
飯田 健
吉野孝・前嶋和弘編著『オバマ政権はアメリカをどのように変えたのか：支持連合・政策成果・中間選挙』東信堂, 5 - 27, Jul. 2010, In book - Constitutions and Public Support for Welfare Policies
Takeshi Iida; Tetsuya Matsubayashi
SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY, WILEY-BLACKWELL, 91(1) 42 - 62, Mar. 2010, Scientific journal - 分断か再統合か：選挙の決定要因
飯田健
吉野孝・前嶋和弘編著『2008年アメリカ大統領選挙：オバマの当選は何を意味するのか』東信堂, 145 - 163, Aug. 2009, In book - The effect of party support on cabinet support under the coalition governments in Japan in the 1990s
飯田健
Review of electoral studies, 日本選挙学会, 6(6) 25 - 42, May 2006, Scientific journal - 政党支持の内閣支持への影響の時間的変化：ARFIMA モデルと時変パラメターを用いた時系列分析
飯田健
選挙学会紀要, 日本選挙学会, 4(4) 41 - 61, May 2005, Scientific journal
MISC
- 2023年学会展望
佐藤一進; 板倉孝信; 小林秀高; 村上友章; 酒井大輔; 林昌宏; 小椋郁馬; 木下健; 三村憲; 石川涼; 飯田健
年報政治学, 2024(II) 306 - 347, Dec. 2024 - The US-Japan Alliance in the Age of Crisis
Naoko Funatsu; Takeshi Iida; Craig Kafura; Shoko Kohama; Satoshi Machidori; Satoru Mori; Ryo Sahashi
2022 Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Japan Institute of International Affairs joint survey report, 29 Mar. 2023 - 世論の立法過程への影響
飯田 健
法学教室, 510 35 - 39, 28 Feb. 2023 - Strong Partners: Japanese and US Perceptions of America and the World
Craig Kafura; Toshihiro Nakayama; Naoko Funatsu; Takeshi Iida; Satoshi Machidori; Satoshi Mori; Ryo Sahashi
2021 Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Japan Institute of International Affairs joint survey report, 29 Mar. 2022 - 政治意識研究の「王道」を行く（書評：善教将大. 2021年.『大阪の選択――なぜ都構想は再び否決されたのか』有斐閣）
飯田 健
書斎の窓, 680 19 - 23, 01 Mar. 2022 - 今井亮佑著『選挙サイクルと投票行動―「中間選挙」としての参院選の意義』木鐸社, 2018年
飯田健
選挙研究, 36(2) 111 , Jul. 2020 - 濱本真輔『現代日本の政党政治―選挙制度改革は何をもたらしたのか』（有斐閣, 2018年8月10日発行）
飯田健
公共選択, 72 163 - 165, Jul. 2019, Book review - 岡田陽介著『政治的義務感と投票参加―有権者の社会関係資本と政治的エピソード記憶』木鐸社, 2017年
飯田健
選挙研究, 35(1) 135 , Jun. 2019, Book review - Sherry L. Martin, Popular Democracy in Japan: How Gender and Community Are Changing Modern Electoral Politics, Cornell University Press, 2011, 191 pp
Takeshi Iida
Japanese Journal of Political Science, 13(4) 587 - 588, Dec. 2012, Book review - 『統制変数病』への処方箋？―政治学における傾向スコアの有用性：星野崇宏著 『調査観察データの統計科学: 因果推論・選択バイアス・データ融合』岩波書店, 2009年.
飯田健
レヴァイアサン, 木鐸社, 49(49) 149 - 152, Oct. 2011, Book review - Gelman, Andrew, David Park, Boris Shor, and Jeronimo Cortina. 2010. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do, Expanded Edition, Princeton University Press
飯田健
選挙研究, 25 136 - 137, Jun. 2010, Book review - 得票構造研究の集大成：水崎節文・森裕城著『総選挙の得票分析：１９５８―２００５』木鐸社
飯田健
レヴァイアサン, 43 108 - 109, Oct. 2008, Book review - 曽根泰教・大山耕輔編『日本の民主主義 変わる政治・変わる政治学』慶應義塾大学出版会, 2008年
飯田健
選挙研究, 24 129 - 132, Oct. 2008, Book review
Books etc
- 政治行動論
飯田健; 松林哲也; 大村華子
※このKindle本はプリント・レプリカ形式で、Kindle Paperwhiteなどの電子書籍リーダーおよびKindle Cloud Readerではご利用いただけません。Fireなどの大きいディスプレイを備えたタブレット端末や、Kindle無料アプリ (Kindle for iOS、Kindle for Android、Kindle for PC、Kindle for Mac) でのみご利用可能です。また、文字列のハイライト、検索、辞書の参照、引用については、一部機能しない場合があります。文字だけを拡大することはできません。
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選挙の際に、私たちはどのようにして政治家や政党を選んでいるのか。また、選ばれた政治家が私たちの声に耳を傾け、それに沿って政策を実行するような状況を生み出すにはどういった条件が必要なのか。本書は、このような疑問に答える「政治行動論」の入門書。データと実証例を豊富に盛り込んで、わかりやすく解説する。, 有斐閣, 17 Dec. 2015, Joint work - 2009年、なぜ政権交代だったのか―読売・早稲田の共同調査で読みとく日本政治の転換
田中 愛治; 河野 勝; 日野 愛郎; 飯田 健; 読売新聞世論調査部
勁草書房, 24 Oct. 2009, Joint work, 『失望』と『期待』が生む政権交代：有権者の感情と投票行動（pp.131-152） - 投票行動研究のフロンティア (おうふう政治ライブラリー)
山田 真裕; 飯田 健
おうふう, 01 May 2009, Joint editor, 飯田健・山田真裕 「有権者の情報処理」, 113-140. 飯田健「政治心理学と合理的選択論の総合」, 259-278. 飯田健「投票行動研究における数理モデルとEITM」, 279-308.
Presentations
- Does Multi-party Endorsement Mitigate Negative Partisanship? Evidence from the 2024 Kyoto Mayoral Election
Takeshi Iida; Isamu Okada; Masahiro Zenkyo
2024 International Conference of Asian Election Studies, 26 Oct. 2024 - 政党ぎらい−2024年京都市長選挙のおける否定投票の分析
岡田勇; 飯田健; 善教将大
2024年度日本政治学会総会・研究大会, 06 Oct. 2024 - Political Participation of Undocumented Mexican Immigrants in the US: Respondent-Driven Sampling with the Hard-to-Reach Population
Takeshi Iida; Jaehyun Song; Yuriko Takahashi
the 2024 Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association, 30 Mar. 2024 - Public Preferences on Security Policy in Japan under the Weak Alliance Commitment of the United State
Takeshi Iida
2023 International Conference of Asian Electoral Studies, Seoul, South Korea, 28 Oct. 2023, Invited oral presentation - Political Participation of Undocumented Mexican Immigrants in the US
高橋百合子; Song Jaehyun; 飯田健
2023年度日本政治学会総会・研究大会, 17 Sep. 2023, Oral presentation - Public Preference on Security Policy under the Weak Commitment of a Patron State
Takeshi Iida
American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, CA, 01 Sep. 2023, Poster presentation - Japanese Attitudes toward the Enhancement of Military Cooperation with the US
Takeshi Iida
European Association for Japanese Studies International Conferences, Ghent, Belgium (online), 19 Aug. 2023, Oral presentation - 緊迫する国際情勢下での安全保障争点と投票行動
飯田 健
日本選挙学会2023年度総会・研究会（東京大学本郷キャンパス）, 20 May 2023, Invited oral presentation - The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Policy Preferences of the U.S. Public
Takeshi Iida
Asian Electoral Study Conference, National Chengchi University, Taiwan (online), 05 Nov. 2022 - 世代、支持政党、選挙区特性による有権者のイデオロギー理解の違い：自由記述回答のテキスト分析
飯田健
第5回東アジア日本研究者協議会国際学術大会, 高麗大学（韓国、オンライン）, 27 Nov. 2021 - The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Policy Preferences of the U.S. Public
飯田健
日本政治学会, 日本大学（オンライン）, 25 Sep. 2021 - Did Trump's Hardline Posture Reassure the Public in Japan?: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment
Masaki Hata; Takeshi Iida; Yasuhiro Izumikawa; Tongfi Kim
the 16th International Conference of the European Association for Japanese Studies, Ghent, Belgium (online), 28 Aug. 2021 - Does a Patron State’s Hardline Posture Reassure the Public in an Allied State?: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment
飯田健
日本国際政治学会（筑波大学・オンライン）, 23 Oct. 2020 - 世代・支持政党による有権者のイデオロギー理解の違い：自由記述回答のテキスト分析
飯田健
日本政治学会（京都大学・オンライン）, 27 Sep. 2020 - Does a Patron State’s Hardline Posture Reassure the Public in an Allied State?: Evidence from a Pre-designed Natural Experiment
Takeshi Iida
Annual Conference of the Australian Society for Quantitative Political Science, the University of Melbourne, Dec. 2019, Oral presentation - 地図抽出による確率標本に対するネット調査：誰が調査に協力するのか
飯田健
第9回世論・選挙調査研究大会（毎日新聞社・毎日ホール）, Sep. 2019, Oral presentation - Buying Votes across Borders?: A Survey Experiment on Mexican Immigrants in the US
Takeshi Iida; Jaehyun Song; Jesus Tovar; Yuriko Takahashi
Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., Aug. 2019, Oral presentation - Reference to Great Presidents and Support for Populist Claims in the U.S.
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Austin, TX, Jan. 2019, Oral presentation - 京都市における共産党の支持基盤
飯田健
第3回東アジア日本研究者協議会国際学術大会（京都リサーチパーク）, Oct. 2018, Oral presentation - The Alliance Dilemma in the Public Mind: A Survey Experiment in Japan
Takeshi Iida
World Congress of the International Political Science Association, Brisbane, Australia, Jul. 2018, Oral presentation - The Alliance Dilemma in the Public Mind: A Survey Experiment in Japan
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, LA, Jan. 2018, Oral presentation - The Alliance Dilemma in the Public Mind: A Survey Experiment in Japan
Takeshi Iida
Asian Electoral Studies Conference, Incheon, South Korea, Oct. 2017, Oral presentation - アメリカン・クリードとしてのポピュリズム
飯田健
日本政治学会（法政大学）, Sep. 2017, Invited oral presentation - 所得格差は再分配への支持を高めるか：国家間のマルチレベル分析
飯田健
日本比較政治学会（成蹊大学）, Jun. 2017, Invited oral presentation - 2016年参院選における護憲派による改憲勢力への投票
飯田健
日本選挙学会（香川大学）, May 2017, Invited oral presentation - Awareness of Party Issue Differences and Regret on Vote: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Japan
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, LA, Jan. 2017, Oral presentation - Awareness of Party Issue Differences and Regret on Vote: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Japan
Takeshi Iida
Asian Electoral Studies Conference, National Chengchi University, Taiwan, Oct. 2016, Oral presentation - 政党の争点立場認知と投票後悔：2016年参院選における「改憲勢力3分の2」
飯田健
日本政治学会（立命館大学大阪いばらきキャンパス）, Oct. 2016, Oral presentation - Surging Progressives in the Conservative Mood: The Conditional Effects of Income and Urbanism on Vote Choice in the 2014 Japanese Lower House Election
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, San Juan, Perto Rico, Jan. 2016, Oral presentation - Surging Progressives in the Conservative Mood: The Conditional Effects of Income and Urbanism on Vote Choice in the 2014 Japanese Lower House Election
Takeshi Iida
Asian Electoral Studies Conference, Keio University, Oct. 2015, Oral presentation - Surging Progressives in the Conservative Mood: The Conditional Effects of Income and Urbanism on Vote Choice in the 2014 Japanese Lower House Election
飯田健
日本政治学会学会（千葉大学）, Oct. 2015, Oral presentation - 2008年大統領選挙における「ペロー」への投票
飯田健
アメリカ学会（国際基督教大学）, Jun. 2015, Oral presentation - Split-ticket Voting as Risk Management: Evidence from the 2013 Japanese Upper House Election
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, LA, Jan. 2015, Oral presentation - Scramble for Security: Domestic Turmoil and Deterrence Failure in Interstate Rivalries
Koji Kagotani; Takeshi Iida
Annual Conference of the Australian Society for Quantitative Political Science, the University of Sydney, Dec. 2014, Oral presentation - 集団的自衛権はいかにして容認されるか？同盟のジレンマにもとづくフレーム実験より
飯田健; 秦正樹
公共選択学会（青山学院大学）, Nov. 2014, Oral presentation - 2009年政権交代への失望と政治不信：有権者は合理的である「べき」か
飯田健
日本政治学会（早稲田大学）, Oct. 2014, Oral presentation - 有権者のリスク態度と投票行動
飯田健
公共選択学会（駒澤大学）, Nov. 2013, Oral presentation - リスク志向有権者がもたらす政治的帰結：2013年参院選における分割投票
飯田健
日本政治学会（北海学園大学）, Sep. 2013, Oral presentation - リスク志向有権者がもたらす政治的帰結：2012年総選挙の分析
飯田健
日本選挙学会（京都大学）, May 2013, Invited oral presentation - The Consequences of Risk-taking Voting Behavior: An Analysis of the 2012 General Election in Japan
Takeshi Iida
Western Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Hollywood, CA, Mar. 2013, Oral presentation - Immigration and Support for Conservative Parties in Japan
Takeshi Iida; Tetsuya Matsubayashi; Michiko Ueda
International Political Science Association World Congress, Madrid, Spain, Jul. 2012, Oral presentation - Under What Conditions Can Voters Make a Rational Choice?: Voter Preference and Choice in Old-Age Pension Reform in Japan
安達剛; 飯田健; 遠藤晶久; 釜賀浩平
公共選択学会,（専修大学）, Jul. 2012, Oral presentation - 議員行動に対する政策要因の影響: 大阪維新の会の事例を通じて
飯田健
日本選挙学会（筑波大学）, May 2012, Oral presentation - 保守主義の形成における政治的・社会的要因：日米保守主義の比較実証分析
飯田健
日本政治学会（岡山大学）, Oct. 2011, Oral presentation - Collective Identity Perceived by Others: The Determinants of Japanese Attitudes toward South Korea and North Korea
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of the Southwestern Political Science Association, Las Vegas, NV, Mar. 2011, Oral presentation - Under What Condition Can Voters Make Rational Choice?: Voter Preference and Choice in Old-Age Pension Reform in Japan
Tsuyoshi Adachi; Takeshi Iida; Masahisa Endo; Kohei Kamaga
Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, LA, Jan. 2011, Oral presentation - Why Do Voters Become Hopeful for New Leadership?: Voter Risk Attitude and Hope for Opposition Party
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, LA, Jan. 2011, Oral presentation - Political Dynasties and Democratic Representation in Japan
浅古泰史; 飯田健; 上田路子; 松林哲也
日本経済学会春季大会（千葉大学）, Jun. 2010, Oral presentation - 有権者の失望、期待と政権交代：早大・読売共同調査の分析
飯田健
日本選挙学会（明治大学）, May 2010, Oral presentation - Disappointment, Hope, and Government Change: Emotions and Voting Behavior in the 2009 Japanese General Election
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA, Jan. 2010, Oral presentation - Information Environment and Voter's Sense of Responsibility
Atsushi Osaki; Takeshi Iida; Tak-Lai Ke; Yuji Kobayashi; Yuko Takano; Ai Takeuchi; Daisuke Udagawa; Motoki Watab
Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA, Jan. 2010, Oral presentation - 世襲議員と民主政治
飯田健; 上田路子; 松林哲也
日本政治学会（日本大学）, Oct. 2009, Oral presentation - Why Do People Vote “Incorrectly?”: Risk Attitudes in Voting Behavior
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Toronto, Canada, Sep. 2009, Oral presentation - 投票率の変化をもたらす要因：投票参加の時系列分析
飯田健
日本選挙学会（同志社大学）, May 2009, Oral presentation - Electoral Systems, Political Dynasties, and Representation: The Case of Japan
Takeshi Iida; Tetsuya Matsubayashi; Michiko Ueda
Annual Meeting of American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, Aug. 2008, Oral presentation - 政治意識の転換点としての1993年： Bayesian Change Point Modelによる分析
飯田健
日本選挙学会（日本大学）, May 2008, Oral presentation - The Changing Impact of Conservatism on Civic Engagement: A Time Series Analysis Using ARFIMA and Time-varying Parameter Modeling
Takeshi Iida
World Congress of International Political Science Association, Fukuoka, Japan, Jul. 2006, Oral presentation - Constitutions and Public Support for Welfare State Policies
Takeshi Iida; Tetsuya Matsubayashi
Annual Meeting of Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, Apr. 2006, Oral presentation - Does Negative Campaigning Reduce Uncertainty?
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, Apr. 2005, Oral presentation - Explanations for Negativity Effects from a Comparative Perspective
Takeshi Iida
Annual Meeting of Southwest Political Science Association, Corpus Christi, TX, Mar. 2004, Oral presentation
Research Projects
- The Origins of Ideology: Advancing International Scholarship through the Study of Japanese Politics
Hirofumi Miwa; Yoshihiko Takenaka; Shiro Sakaiya; Mitsuo Yoshida; Masahisa Endo; Asako Miura; Kazunori Inamasu
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2025/04 -2030/03, Competitive research funding, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Gakushuin University - Public Preferences on Security Policy and Voting Behavior
飯田 健; 泉川 泰博; 秦 正樹
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2024/04 -2028/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Doshisha University - Exploring Political Culture of Mexican Immigrants in the U.S.: A Mixed Method Approach
高橋 百合子; 飯田 健; SONG JAEHYUN
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2021/04 -2025/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Waseda University - Development from electoral research to the study of representative democracy through the JESVII survey and data release publicly
小林 良彰; 堤 英敬; 原田 勝孝; 谷口 尚子; 飯田 健; 築山 宏樹
令和3年度は、次の事業を実施した。①選挙結果データの補充・拡充：現行システムでは昭和24年の現憲法下での第一回衆院選以降の全ての衆院選及び昭和22年の第一回参院選以降の全ての参院選の市区町村別・候補者別及び政党別データを保有する。今年度は令和3年に実施された第49回衆院選の市区町村別・候補者別及び政党別データを補充した。②JESⅦ第1波調査・第2波調査の分析：代議制民主主義が機能しているかどうかを確認するために、令和3年10月の第49回衆院選の事前及び事後パネル調査データを用いて、有権者意識、とりわけissue votingやretrospective votingなど従来の仮説の妥当性を検証した。③選挙公約データの収集と分析：現行システムに第49回衆院選小選挙区の全候補者の選挙公報データを収集・補充した。また当初計画を前倒しして、同選挙公報の内容分析を開始した。④国際シンポジウムの開催：本研究組織は20年前から台湾国立政治大学選挙研究センター及び韓国選挙学会と投票行動に関する国際共同研究（Asian Electoral Studies）を行っており、米国ミシガン大学出版などから共著を刊行してきた。令和3年度は次回衆院選の分析を踏まえて令和3年10月23日に日本でAESシンポジウムを韓国選挙学会及び台湾国立政治大学選挙研究センターと共に共同開催した。さらに、当初計画を超えて、令和3年6月26日に韓国延世大学行政学大学院と合同でシンポジウムを共同開催した。また令和4年3月18日に韓国ソウル大学行政学大学院との合同シンポジウムを共同開催した。⑤当初計画を前倒しして、令和2年国勢調査の人口等基本集計市区町村別データをDB化してインストールした。⑥元号改変に伴う都道府県議会議事録システムの変更に対応するために、47都道府県の全ての議会議事録システムの状況の調査を実施した。, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2020/04 -2025/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Keio University - 政府による情報技術利用に対する有権者の受容と信頼
飯田 健
本年度は、予定どおりオンラインサーベイおよびオンライン無作為化実験を実施し、以下の研究課題に取り組んだ。 第一に、脅威の権威主義的態度に対する不均一な効果の検証。先行研究では脅威認識は政府の役割についての権威主義的態度（個人の自由の保護よりも社会の秩序の維持を重視する）を強めるかどうかについて、mixed resultsである。そのパズルを解決する取り組みとして、個人の属性による脅威の不均一な効果に着目する先行研究がある、これをCovid-19の事例に適用し、Covid-19のnormativeおよびphysicalな脅威は権威主義的態度を強めるのか、個人の特性（例えば党派性、リスク態度、コロナ感染経験、コロナ感染リスク認識など）による条件付効果も含めて検討した。 第二に、コロナ不安と現状維持投票の関係。先行研究では、コロナの脅威は有権者の政治的選択における安定志向を強めestablishment candidatesへの投票を促すことが主張されている。また、多くの国でコロナの脅威は政権の支持を一時的に上昇させた。しかし、理論的にコロナの脅威は変革志向をもたらす可能性もあると考えられる。実験では、どのような条件下でコロナの脅威が政治的変革志向に繋がるのか検討した。 第三に、Digital Authoritarianismの受容。コロナ禍において、政府の個人に対する監視や個人情報の収集の強化に対する懸念が論じられているが、そうした動きに対する有権者の態度は検証されていない。有権者はどのような条件下でどのような種類の政府による情報収集を受け入れるのか、何が懸念の原因なのかを検討するために実験では、このように忌避感の強い政府による情報技術を通じての個人情報の取得の取得容認に与える要因としてコロナ感染対策の理由付けの効果を犯罪防止の理由付けとの比較で検討した。, 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(B), 2021/04 -2024/03, 基盤研究(B), 同志社大学 - 選挙ガバナンスが正確な投票（CorrectVoting）に与える影響に関する研究
大西 裕; 品田 裕; 秦 正樹; 堤 英敬; 藤村 直史; 高橋 百合子; 川中 豪; 飯田 健; 小林 哲郎; SONG JAEHYUN; 荒井 紀一郎
本研究は、選挙ガバナンスが「正確な投票(correct voting)」に如何なる影響を与えているのかを明らかにすることを目的とする。本研究は、選挙ガバナンスのうち近年世界的に進展している積極的投票権保障が、選挙において有権者の選好に最も近似する政党に投票することを意味する「正確な投票」に影響を与える条件とメカニズムを、実験およびサーベイ調査を用いて解明する。条件は多国間比較で、メカニズムは日本を事例に明らかにする。すなわち、積極的投票権保障のうち、本研究では、投票環境の改善(Ａ)、情報アクセス改善(Ｂ)と、有権者教育(Ｃ)を対象とする。後者では、ＡＢＣの３要素がどのように正確な投票に影響するのかを日本を対象に明らかにする。前者では、党派的キューの有効性の差異がこれら３要素の投票行動への作用に違いをもたらすのかを、党派的キューの有効性に多様性が生じる多国間比較で明らかにする。研究成果は国内外の学会および海外の主要査読誌で報告し、得られた知見の国際的な有用性を主張する。 令和３年度は、第１に、前年度に実施した「正確な投票」に関するサーベイ実験結果を分析し、概念の妥当性を検証し、多国間で適用可能なモデルを検討した。第２に、選挙ガバナンスが「正確な投票」に与える影響について、情報環境に注目した実証分析を行う。そのために、衆議院選挙サーベイ調査を実施したほか、投票環境に関するアンケート調査、主権者教育を軸とする若年層に対する意識調査、若年層に対比させる目的を有する一般有権者意識調査も実施した。第３に、前年度予算で実施する全国市区町村選挙管理委員会事務局アンケート調査を分析した。第4に、第1での検討を基盤として、前年度予算で実施したメキシコ有権者調査を分析し、多国間比較に向けた準備を行った。, 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 2019/04 -2023/03, 基盤研究(A), 神戸大学 - An International Comparative Study of Governance in Representative Democracy
小林 良彰; 飯田 健; 鎌原 勇太; 築山 宏樹; 原田 勝孝
令和3年度は、本研究課題で実施した自治体関係者に対する調査データを用いて、当初計画を超えてFAUI研究の成果であるNPC首長のタイプが市民のWell-Beingにどのような効果をもたらすのかを実証的に明らかにした。具体的には、Well-Beingを五つの次元（safety and security、health、wealth、convenience、amenity）に分けて各々の次元をもたらす社会経済的要因を抽出して関連性を解明した。これらの作業を通して従来のFAUI研究とAmenity研究を融合して、新たなWell-Being研究にパラダイムシフトすることを目指した。これら研究代表者及び研究分担者の研究成果をSpringerが刊行する国際学術誌等に投稿し、研究代表者による国際共著論文や研究分担者による論文が査読付論文として刊行された。さらに、シカゴ大学のClark教授を交えた国際カンファレンスを共同開催し、研究代表者及び研究分担者の全員が報告して活発な討議を行なった。またソウル大学行政学大学院（GSPA）のIm教授やKim教授（韓国地方分権委員会委員長）達と国際カンファレンスを共同開催し、本研究課題側とGSPA側の双方から多くの報告を行ない、自治体ガバナンスの比較について熱心な議論を交わした。さらに、韓国選挙学会及び台湾国立政治大学とのアジア選挙研究国際シンポジウム（AES）を共同開催するとともに、当初計画を超えて延世大学行政学大学院と国際シンポジウムを共同開催して、双方の研究者による報告と質疑応答を行なった。これらを通して、研究代表者がこれまで培ってきた米国や韓国、台湾の研究者とのネットワークに日本の若手研究者を組み入れ、彼らが査読付き国際学術誌掲載論文を刊行することをもう一人のメンターである飯田と共に指導し、当初計画を超える成果を挙げている。, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2018/10 -2023/03, Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research (B)), Keio University - Empirical Analysis of Buying Votes Across Borders
Takahashi Yuriko
This project explained whether and how vote buying occurred in external voting focusing on the case of Mexican immigrants in the US and combining the methods of survey experiments and interviews. Specifically, we conducted a list experiment using an online survey targeting Mexican immigrants in the US in the context of the 2018 presidential elections of Mexico. We found that approximately 32 percent of the respondents experienced vote-buying. Furthermore, this experimental analysis was complemented by qualitative interviews for retuned immigrants and migrant families in Puebla, Mexico as well as the leaders of Mexican immigrant organizations in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. As a result, we verified the causal mechanism by which buying vote across borders occurred in external voting: political parties or candidates attempted to buy the expatriates’ votes, expecting they influence voting decisions of their families in Mexico through a dense cross-border networks., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2019/06 -2022/03, Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory), Waseda University - The Alliance Dilemma in the American and Japanese Public Minds
Iida Takeshi
This study aims at examining public support for a military alliance. The findings from a series of online survey experiments conducted in February 2019, March 2020, and February/March 2021 include the following. The fear of entrapment decreases the level of support for the US-Japan alliance among the Japanese public, but the fear of abandonment has no significant impact. The US presidents’ attitudes toward the US-Japan alliance have neither a significant positive nor negative impact on the level of trust in the US military intervention to help Japan among the Japanese public. The US president’s negative posture toward the US-Japan alliance decreases the level of support for the US military intervention to help Japan among the American public., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Challenging Research (Exploratory), 2018/06 -2021/03, Challenging Research (Exploratory), Doshisha University - Electoral district as Political space: What the zoning provides?
SHIMIZU Yuichiro
This study is initiated as a three-year project with the aim of clarifying the structure of the formation and development of electoral districts in Japan, an aporia of electoral research, by examining it through a combined use of theoretical, historical, quantitative, and GIS methods, and to contribute the results to the current theory of electoral systems and to the construction of systems in developing countries. The first step was to compile data on sevenreorganizations of electoral district in 1890, 1900, 1920, 1925, 1946, 1947, and 1993. In particular, this was done so that the data could be analyzed consecutively from the han-clan period in Edo era. We then explored the possibility of using these data to conduct research at the historical, regional, and national levels, opening up the possibility of individual studies., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2017/04 -2021/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Keio University - Developing an Archive Infrastructure for Political Data
Kobayashi Yoshiaki
In this research, we optimized the table structure of the database and expanded its functions so that it can be used without installing any software on the client PC. We also supplemented data of the National Diet and Prefectural Assembly Records, the municipality-level results of the most recent elections for the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, the 2015 Japanese census, the most recent three South Korean censuses, the most recent Taiwanese census, and the most recent Chinese census. In addition, during the grant period, we conducted the first to third waves of the JES VI Survey for national elections. The merger of data from social surveys, parliamentary proceedings, election manifestos, and election results, has advanced our project from conventional electoral research to the study of representative democracy. This project has also contributed to researchers in Japan and abroad with a seven-language search function for the database., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2017/04 -2020/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Keio University - 投票外参加の日米比較：確率標本によるインターネット調査を用いた因果推論の精緻化
飯田 健; 西澤 由隆; 松林 哲也; 三村 憲弘
平成30年度の研究成果は主として次の3点に集約される。第一に、日本において選挙人名簿／住民基本台帳確率標本を用いたインターネット調査と郵送調査とを同時期に平行して実施し、モード間の比較を行った。昨年度までの調査においては、調査モードを揃えた上で地図抽出によるインターネット調査と通常の登録パネルからの割り当て標本に対するインターネット調査との比較を行ったことにより、地図抽出による確率標本の取得という抽出方法の特徴について検討を行ったのに対し、本年度は抽出方法を選挙人名簿／住民基本台帳からの無作為抽出に一定にした上で、2019年2月2日（土）～3月17日（日）の期間、京都市内18歳以上の男女1200人（50人×24地点）を対象に調査を実施したことにより、近年マスメディアの調査でよく使われるようになっている郵送調査と（登録パネルに依らない）確率標本インターネット調査との調査モードの違いについて検討できた。 第二に、昨年度までに得たデータを用いてこれまでに構築した理論をもとに、投票参加と投票参加外のメカニズムに関する研究を行った。理論的に政治参加を促す要因としては、自らの行動が結果に影響を与える可能性に関する認識および問題となっている争点の重要性があるが、インターネットサーベイ実験においてその両者を操作し、それぞれが参加意欲に与える影響とその影響力を規定する属性について検討を行った。結果、リスク受容的な態度をもつ有権者はこれらの操作に影響される度合いが低く、常に意欲が高いこと、支持政党をもたない有権者は基本的に参加意欲は低いが、これらの操作の影響を受けやすいこと、などが明らかとなった。こうした結果をいくつかの研究会で報告した。 第三に、これまで得られた個人レベルデータ、環境調査データを用いて、地図抽出によって選ばれた対象者がインターネット調査に参加する要因について検証を行った。, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), 2015/04 -2020/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Doshisha University - Research on Development and Effects of Substantive Voting Rights
ONISHI Yutaka
Reforms are currently under way in countries around the world, which substantially secure the voting rights such as overseas voting and early voting (substantive voting rights, SVRs). In this study, we investigated the conditions of their introduction(1), the relationship between the electoral management bodies and SVRs(2), and their influences on the voting behavior(3). We obtained the following findings. As for (1),SVRs are not introduced to improve voting behavior, but are influenced by political circumstances and the judicial situation. As for (2), SVRs are not politically neutral because the political actors such as the local politicians, mayors can affect the operation of SVRs. For (3), voters who vote early have greater regret after the election. Electoral governance can influence the outcome of the polls., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2015/04 -2019/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Kobe University - Time Series Analysis of Cabinet Approval Ratings and Their Interaction with Political Events, News Reports, and Public Opinion
Fukumoto Kentaro
Our studies examined how political and economic events shape the approval ratings in Japan. We addressed both foreign and domestic events. Events have a variety of effects that are constant over different periods of time. Not only events but also news reports shape the Japanese public opinion. News reports on North Korea and South Korea shape the Japanese public’s affinities to those countries, while economic news reports change the Japanese cabinet approval ratings. Finally, the probability of cabinet approval converges at the individual level because the longer tenure of the cabinet leads to the spread of information., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2014/04 -2019/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Gakushuin University - Institution Building and Policymaking that Reflect Needs of Citizens: An Approach of Political Economy
Tanaka Aiji; Kikkawa Toru; Konishi Hideki; Funaki Yukihiko; Imai Ryosuke; Shinada Yutaka; Jou Willy
We empirically compared Computer-Assisted Self-administered Interview (CASI) based on deliberation within himself/herself with Mini-Publics (MP) based on deliberation with other people, CASI is preferable because it guarantees representativeness of sample better and costs less. However, this research project also found that deliberation within himself/herself was not as effective as deliberation with other people in some aspects of attitudes. For example, when a respondent wrongly believed incorrect information to be true, only deliberation with other people can correct his/her wrong concept. Therefore, we now know that each of CASI and MP has its own merit, and it would be premature to conclude that one method is better than the other., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2013/05 -2018/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S), Waseda University - American "Electoral Democracy" in Crisis: Social-Economic Changes and Political Respnoses
Yoshino Takashi; IIDA Takeshi; IMAMURA Hiroshi; KAWAGISHI Norikazu; NAKAYAMA Toshihiro; MAESHIMA Kazuhiro; MATSUMOTO Shunta; WATANABE Masahito
The deadlock of politics and resulting confusions in the recent America have been caused by the fact that the institutions and practices of American “electoral democracy” have not worked well--institutions include the division of power, federalism, two-party system and the party presidential nomination by primary elections, and practices mean the weak party discipline in Congress and policy making by compromise. In the social and economic changes since the 1960s, women and minorities won big voices, and the Federal Supreme Court rulings gave them the legal foundation for demanding the federal government to correct discriminations. In response to these changes, political parties democratized their presidential candidate nomination procedures. Mass media polarized public opinion, and the SNS deepened political polarization. Reducing differences in value among generations over time, and a realignment of political parties may alleviate these polarization situations., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2011/04 -2016/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Waseda University - Japanese Electoral Studies 2012-2016
KOBAYASHI Yoshiaki; HIRANO Hiroshi; TANIGUSHI Masaki; YAMADA Masahiro; NATORI Ryota; IIDA Takeshi; ONO Yoshikuni; MCELWAIN Kenneth; MATSUBAYASHI Tetsuya; TSUKIYAMA Hiroki
This research project has already conducted 18 surveys (14 Japanese national surveys, 3 Japanese local surveys, 1 international comparative survey) in 3 years since its start year beyond our first plan of conducting 8 surveys in 5 years. It could cover all the three national elections during the project and collect precious opinion poll data. We have produces the following New Knowledge and Academic Impact in Political Science. (1) From Voting Behavior Studies to Democracy Studies: Multiple Data Analysis While previous election studies have treated voting behavior as an explained variable and analyzed voters’ opinions only by using opinion poll data, this study widened the focus to the functions of representative democracy combining the survey data with election bulletin data and congressional records data. As a result, we contributed to develop the conventional election studies into a study of representative democracy. (2) Comparative Politics of Representative Democracy in Japan, the U.S. and South Korea: From External Comparison to Substantive Comparison The problems on the functions of representative democracy are not peculiar to Japan. Having conducted similar analyses in the U.S. and South Korea, we found that there are similar problems in those countries. Particularly, South Korea showed more differences between election bulletin and congressional behavior than Japan does so. Also, when we compare the results in the three countries, we found that each country has a different characteristic on the functions of representative democracy. (3) The Analysis of Representative Democracy at Local Government in Japan Because voters’ opinions are shaped not only at national level but also at local level, we expanded our scope of research from national level to local level. Particularly, we analyzed the congruency between congress people’s manifestos and approvals toward ordinances in local government which satisfies specific conditions such as whether it implements a manifesto system and publicizes congressional records in preliminary and committees. (4) Formation and Transformation of Political Attitudes This project inherits the foundation of 40 years long national and time-series study of voting behavior in Japan, and attempts to clarify the formation and transformation of political attitudes. Through the above analyses, the number of academic presentations, articles, and books on voting behavior in total has gradually increased since 2011 when we first launched the project. Specifically, the number of presentations grew by 383 %, articles by 118%, and whole works (including books) by 218% since 2011. (5) Establishment of New Research Method by Multimethod Comparison Specifically, we compared the results of political support and satisfaction and reexamined the differences, if any, by separating each sample by social attributes such as gender, age, and the size of city so that we could find any bias in different survey methods. As a result, we found that, compared to the interview, the mailing has the largest bias in public opinion and social attributes, while the Internet had a smaller bias and only showed a little bit lower political satisfaction. Meanwhile, to examine a bias in “self-selection,” we estimated a bias in political consciousness within the segments of several social attributes. (6) Construction of Database We installed our data including election bulletin data, congressional records data, and election outcomes data by cities in XML files and created a system in which one can access the data in seven languages (Japanese, English, Chinese, Korean, Russian, Indonesian, and Malay). In doing so, we succeeded in receiving several offers from research institutions abroad and constructing an international network of joint research., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2012 -2016, Grant-in-Aid for Specially Promoted Research - Political Parties and Voters' Attitudes toward Risks
IIDA Takeshi
Main findings of this research project from the analysis of Japanese survey data can be summarized as follows. First, risk-taking voters are more likely to vote for opposition parties with more uncertainty, which leads to a swing in election results. Second, risk-taking voters are less likely to split their votes in elections to consolidate a power base of a government party with a radical policy platform. Third, Japanese voters tend to accept the risk of entrapment but avoid the risk of abandonment when thinking of security policies in terms of alliance politics., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), 2012/04 -2015/03, Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) - A Study of Japanese Preference Formation in Foreign Policy
KOHNO Masaru; NISHIZAWA Yoshitaka; IIDA Keisuke; ARAI Kiichiro; IIDA Takeshi; IZUMIKAWA Yashuhiro; IMAI Ryosuke; UEKI Chikako; KURIYAMA Koichi; KOJO Yoshiko; SAKAIYA Shiro; NAKANISHI Hiroshi
This study, in an attempt to explore the mechanism through which people's attitudes toward foreign relations are formed in Japan, engaged in a series of monthly public opinion survey through web from October 2011 to September 2013, a type of survey that had never been conducted in Japan. Aggregate results of the survey from each month, together with a brief summary and commentary, were made available to the public promptly at the homepage of a research institute headed by the principal investigator. Some of the research results, especially the analyses of short-term changes of public opinion over important issues which attracted wide attention during the period of our investigation, such as TPP, leadership change in North Korea, and Senkaku/Takeshima incidents, have already been publicized in scholarly journals and presented at academic conferences and seminars in Japan and elsewhere., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2011/04 -2014/03, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Waseda University - Voters'"Disappointment,""Anxiety," and "Hope" and the Possibility of Change in Government Leadership
IIDA Takeshi
This project examines how Japanese voters become hopeful for and disappointed in political parties through survey data analysis and social science experiments. It also aims at constructing a theory to explain the mechanism under which change in government leadership happens. The main finings include the following: A simultaneous rise in disappointment and hope lead to higher voter participation and a swing for an opposition party. Voter support for opposition parties and their disappointment in a ruling party are not two sides of the same coin, meaning that a decline in popularity of a ruling party does not lead to a surge in support for an opposition party., Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), 2009 -2011, Competitive research funding, Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) - Political Change and Decision Making Mechanism of the Japanese : Integration of Psychological Economic Experiment and Public Opinion Survey
TANAKA Aiji; KOHNO Masaru; SHIMIZU Kazumi; YAMADA Masahiro; WATABE Motoki; KUME Ikuo; NISHIZAWA Yoshitaka; HASEGAWA Mariko; FUNAKI Yukihiko; SHINADA Yutaka; KURIYAMA Kohichi; FUKUMOTO Kentaro; IMAI Ryosuke; HINO Airo; IIDA Takeshi
本研究では、全国の有権者から無作為抽出した対象者(サンプル)に対し、ノート・パソコンを用いた世論調査(CASI方式)を日本で初めて実施した。さらに、ノート・パソコンによるCASI調査に、認知心理学的視点を加えた政治経済学実験の要素を組み込み、実験を導入した世界初のCASI方式全国世論調査に成功した。これにより、政治変動をもたらす日本人の意志決定のメカニズムの解明を可能にし得る新たな研究を踏み出した。, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2006 -2008, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Waseda University